AI and Employment: Is Humanity at Risk of Becoming a Pest?

AI: Between Complementarity and Substitutability

The impact of artificial intelligence on the world of work is often envisioned through two extreme scenarios. The first, optimistic, imagines a perfect complementarity between AI and human workers, where each would benefit from the strengths of the other. The second, more pessimistic, anticipates total substitutability, where AI would replace workers, rendering them obsolete. However, a third, even more troubling scenario is rarely discussed.

The Pest Scenario: A Kafkaesque Vision

This third scenario, inspired by Franz Kafka's "The Metamorphosis," suggests that humans could become pests in a world dominated by AI. Unlike a revolt of machines or technological domination, this vision proposes that humans would be relegated to an insignificant position, unable to adapt to an environment shaped by technologies they no longer control. In this context, workers would not simply be sidelined but outright considered obstacles to be eliminated.

It is surprising that academic research has not delved deeper into this exotic scenario. Is it so improbable that AI could reduce us to the status of pests? Is it so inconceivable to imagine that merely sidelining us might no longer suffice, and that we might need to consider clearing the road entirely? To date, publications abound, but none break free from the framework established by the first two scenarios: complementarity or substitutability.

Academic and Economic Perspectives

Among the publications, some stand out for their rigor, combining theoretical formalism and empirical studies. Daren Acemoglu, for example, takes a cautious approach, while Philippe Aghion is optimistic and Erik Brynjolfsson enthusiastic. In contrast, other studies, such as "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," while having a notable impact on financial markets, lack academic depth.

Believing in the scenario of complementarity between future employees and AI seems increasingly difficult to imagine, given the speed at which AI is vampirizing the professional world. But the worst is never certain. Indeed, even the worst must meet certain conditions to come to pass. In this case, economic theory identifies two extreme conditions that could justify a shift from the positive scenario of complementarity to the negative scenario of substitutability.

Conditions for Total Replacement

For AI to completely replace human workers, two extreme conditions must be met. The first is that all tasks, including those of white-collar workers, become replaceable by AI. The second condition is that AI ceases to be a mere tool and becomes an autonomous engine of research and development, a vision supported by proponents of endogenous growth. If these conditions are met, the economic consequences would be catastrophic for workers, with a negative impact on income and economic well-being.

Under these two conditions, economic growth could then become exponential, and the worker could be completely replaced. The consequences in terms of income, purchasing power, and any other measure of economic well-being would then be catastrophic for the former employee. Unless one imagines an intervention by authorities to impose, for example, the famous robot tax, which could, why not, produce an eternal rent for the fallen workers.

The Absurdity of an Inaudible World

In this world dominated by AI, the absurd would no longer lie in the silence of the world in response to human calls, as described by Albert Camus, but in our inability to understand a world that speaks a technological language inaudible to us. Humanity could then find itself wandering, trying to avoid being crushed by technological advances while seeking to find meaning in its new condition.

Yet we would not have lost our capacity to feel, like Gregor recalling his true nature as a sensitive animal while listening to his sister play the violin: “Gregor crawled a little further and rested his head against the door so as not to miss the music.” A lesser evil, we would still have our eyes to cry, in a sense. But for the rest of the time, we would be condemned to wandering, scratching the walls, sniffing out danger, on the lookout for the hostile, “he had nothing else to do but wait; then, assailed by remorse and anxiety, he began to crawl, crawl everywhere…” Clumsy, powerless, invisible, cumbersome, our only ambition would be to avoid being accidentally crushed by AI. Not to provoke its fright at the sight of our abject appearance.

A New Era of the Absurd

Perhaps this new era, although troubling, could illuminate the absurdity of our human condition. Until now, the absurd was defined by Albert Camus as the confrontation between the human call and the silence of the world. Tomorrow, the absurd could result from our inability to understand the language of a talkative but inaudible world. We might then whisper our existences, desperately seeking to give meaning to our place in this new world order.