OpenAI and Google: Frenzied Acquisitions in AI

The Greed of the AI Market: A New Landscape for Careers

The artificial intelligence market is currently characterized by unprecedented greed, where startups are being absorbed at a frantic pace by large tech companies. This dynamic raises crucial questions for those considering joining these young companies. Indeed, the rapid acquisitions by giants like OpenAI, Google, and Workday are changing the criteria professionals in AI use to make their choices.

A Frenzy of Acquisitions

Over the past two years, major tech platforms have ramped up their acquisitions of AI startups. OpenAI, for example, has integrated more than a dozen startups since 2024, including six acquisitions just this year. Google, on its part, spent $2.4 billion to take control of Windsurf, while Workday acquired Stockholm-based Sana Labs for $1.1 billion.

These transactions illustrate a trend where large companies are heavily investing in acqui-hiring. This phenomenon is not only driven by the desire to eliminate competition but also by the scarcity of high-level engineering talent in an extremely competitive job market. The startups themselves are adopting similar strategies to attract these rare talents.

Rethinking Company Selection Criteria

In this context of acquisition frenzy, it is crucial for AI professionals to reassess their selection criteria when considering joining a startup. Rather than focusing on the likelihood of a company being acquired, it is more relevant to consider the experience and skills one can gain.

The Quality of the Founder: A Key Criterion

In a greedy market, the quality of a startup's founder becomes a primary selection criterion. It is not just about whether the founder is someone that giants like Google or OpenAI would want to acquire. The important thing is to determine whether this founder has a deep conviction, a true market fit, and the resilience necessary to continue building, even when the easiest path would be to sell.

The best founders are those who believe that normal outcomes do not apply to them. They are not looking to maximize their options but are pursuing a vision so ambitious that selling early would be seen as a lack of courage. Paradoxically, it is these founders who end up with the most options, as acquirers are willing to pay high premiums for those who do not wish to be acquired.

Betting on the Team Rather Than the Company

In an environment where acquisitions are frequent, the team you join may be more important than the company itself. The relationships you establish with exceptional colleagues can have repercussions far beyond the lifespan of the company. Your future co-founder, your next CTO, or the person who will open the door to a revolutionary opportunity may already be in the same room as you.

An acquisition does not mark the end of a story but rather a chapter in a longer career. When evaluating a startup, pay attention to the quality of the people you meet. They should be extraordinary enough that you would want to build again with them. The ratio of exceptional people around you is always your best assurance in an uncertain environment.

Assessing the Defensibility of the Company

The defensibility of the company is another crucial criterion to consider. It is important to know whether the company possesses the workflow or the end result, and not just a layer of the tech stack. Does it generate proprietary data and cumulative learning loops as it operates?

My colleague Julien Bek argues that if a company sells a tool, every better model from a cutting-edge lab narrows the gap. If it sells the result, the best models become cheaper inputs, not existential threats. A company that owns the result is one in which you can build a career. And there are more of these opportunities than the headlines suggest.

Fundamental model companies are racing towards AGI and have too many things to focus on to worry about every industry and workflow. This leaves a huge opportunity for ambitious, focused teams to build something that lasts.

Experience as an Asset

Joining a company that is acquired in 18 months does not mean you have wasted your time. You have experienced the complete cycle of building a startup: shipping when the product barely works, recruiting when no one has heard of you, scaling under real constraints, and eventually navigating the complexities of a deal and a post-deal environment.

This has value because it proves that you were present during tough times and built something valuable. Operators and founders who achieve exceptional things are generally those who choose their experiences carefully. Choose the experience that accumulates your ability to build something meaningful later, whether in the form of your own company or by becoming the person that every great founder wants on their team.

The greedy dynamics of the tech ecosystem are unlikely to slow down anytime soon. But joining a startup has always required high optimism, and the best startup careers are not built by people who eliminate uncertainty. They are built by those who choose the right uncertainty and fully commit to it. Optimize for the career that accumulates. The outcomes are uncertain, but what you learn and who you build with are not.