Yale: AI Lowers Salaries but Boosts Purchasing Power

The potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on wages and purchasing power is at the heart of current economic discussions. Pascual Restrepo, an economics professor at Yale University, offers an intriguing perspective: while AI may lead to a decrease in wages, it could simultaneously increase purchasing power by reducing the cost of goods.

Restrepo emphasizes that focusing solely on wages without considering the impact on the cost of living is a mistake. According to him, even if wages decline, a decrease in prices could offset this loss. He highlights that what matters is not the dollar amount of the salary, but what that salary allows one to purchase.

In a world where AI is capable of performing complex tasks like research or teaching at a low cost, goods and services could become more affordable. This could enable workers to maintain a high purchasing power despite lower nominal wages.

Experts in the tech sector and AI researchers have recently expressed their concerns about the impact of this technology on wages. Ioana Marinescu from the University of Pennsylvania stated that wages could decrease once about 37% of intellectual tasks are automated. She anticipates that this tipping point could occur more quickly if the adoption of AI accelerates.

Clara Shih, former CEO of Salesforce AI, also shared her thoughts on social media. She noted that past technological developments show that wage adjustments are a common way in which new technologies affect workers, often in insidious and disruptive ways.

Restrepo, however, views technology as a factor redefining economic dynamics, influencing both income and costs. The most pessimistic scenario he envisions is one where AI only affects a small portion of jobs, which could lead to wage declines in certain sectors without a reduction in prices, leaving some workers in a difficult situation.

Currently, Restrepo describes the labor market as being in a phase of waiting and observation, where companies are experimenting and seeking to understand how to integrate AI into their operations.