AGI: The Billionaire Illusion of Silicon Valley

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Key Takeaways

1In 2025, $410 billion was invested in artificial intelligence in the United States, despite the lack of consensus on AGI.

2The term AGI, popularized in the 2000s, has become central in Silicon Valley discussions, attracting massive investments.

3Investments in AGI are diverting crucial resources from sectors like healthcare and education, fueling a frantic race.

💡Why it matters — AGI, although undefined, massively influences economic and political decisions, with significant societal impacts.

AGI: A Technological Promise with Blurred Boundaries

Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI, is often presented as the Holy Grail of modern technology, a concept that fascinates as much as it divides. Yet, despite its allure, AGI remains an idea without a clear definition or consensus among experts. No major player in the field has yet proven its feasibility, and yet it continues to attract colossal investments. In 2025, the United States saw $410 billion injected into the field of artificial intelligence, largely driven by this quest for AGI.

In an article published in October 2025 by MIT Technology Review, Will Douglas Heaven analyzes AGI as a belief system with mechanisms similar to those of conspiracy theories. It is not about claiming that dark forces secretly control Silicon Valley, but rather about highlighting a belief flexible enough to withstand any refutation. AGI promises a bright future to its followers while serving the economic interests of its promoters.

The Rise of a Concept in Silicon Valley

The history of AGI dates back to the 2000s when Ben Goertzel, an artificial intelligence researcher, was searching for a catchy title for a collective book. After dismissing the term "Real AI" as too divisive, he sought the opinion of his colleagues. Shane Legg, a former collaborator at Webmind, suggested the term Artificial General Intelligence. Although Goertzel found the term rather unremarkable, he eventually adopted it.

Shane Legg, alongside Demis Hassabis and Mustafa Suleyman, later co-founded DeepMind, a company that would be acquired by Google. The concept of AGI then spread from conference to conference, eventually catching the attention of Peter Thiel. The latter, known for funding Eliezer Yudkowsky and his Singularity Institute in the 2000s, joined the founders of OpenAI in 2015. Thus, AGI gradually established itself in the imagination of decision-makers in Silicon Valley.

From Conspiracy Theory to Near-Religion

The analogy between AGI and conspiracy theories rests on a lack of Machiavellianism. The promoters of AGI do not need to lie deliberately; it is enough to believe or make others believe with sufficient conviction. Jeremy Cohen, a researcher at McMaster University, identifies several classic markers in AGI rhetoric: the selection of favorable evidence, the rejection of counter-evidence, and the conviction that only the initiated can perceive the truth.

Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI employee, published a manifesto titled "Situational Awareness" that illustrates this mindset: either one "senses" the arrival of AGI, or one does not understand. Shannon Vallor, a philosopher at the University of Edinburgh, notes that AGI has replaced faith in humanity with faith in machines, becoming a sort of secular deity promising redemption in exchange for massive investments in data centers and Nvidia chips.

A Fearsome Financial Engine

AGI stands out for its ability to attract massive investments. By inventing a goal as grand as a machine surpassing human intelligence, no serious investor can afford to ignore it. Add a dose of apocalyptic fear, and you have a technological arms race where everyone must invest to avoid being left behind.

The figures are staggering: Microsoft, Meta, and Google have announced cumulative infrastructure spending of several hundred billion dollars in a single year. OpenAI, despite the lack of obvious profitability, is valued at $852 billion. In 2025, a significant portion of global venture capital flowed into AI companies, fueling this frantic race.

The Consequences of a Collective Illusion

The repercussions of this myth are very real. Funds invested in AGI are not allocated to essential sectors like health, education, or energy transition. This represents a major diversion of resources, particularly energy, in areas close to data centers. Christopher Symmes, a former executive at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, laments this missed opportunity to solve concrete problems.

Another perverse effect is the distortion of public debate. In 2023, AI leaders signed a declaration stating that reducing the risk of extinction due to AI should be a global priority, on par with pandemics or nuclear weapons. This declaration, whether sincere or not, has shifted attention toward a hypothetical risk, overshadowing real emergencies.

Finally, some fear that AGI may serve to legitimize the concentration of power and wealth within a small circle of individuals. This idea, although still in gestation, seems to be taking shape. The lack of a clear definition of AGI ensures that this race will never stop, unless a financial bubble comes to slow this momentum. The greatest lie of AI, AGI, has always been visible, but its impact continues to grow.