AI and Employment: Juniors on the Frontline

Key Takeaways

1Young workers in jobs exposed to AI have seen their employment decline since the end of 2022

2Macroeconomic indicators show no overall net impact or established direct link with AI

3Companies are prioritizing training, and job offers related to AI are increasing significantly

Why it matters : Recent developments indicate increased pressure on newcomers in jobs exposed to AI, but the extent and causes of the phenomenon remain debated.

Since the end of 2022, several studies have noted a decline in employment and hiring among young people in jobs exposed to AI, particularly in software development and customer service. However, macroeconomic indicators remain ambiguous, and the direct attribution to AI is debated, while the demand for AI skills continues to grow.

Aggregates Struggle to Confirm a Global Shock

In January 2026, an analysis conducted on 10.6 million LinkedIn profiles and unemployment data in the United States warns against attributing the decline in jobs solely to AI. The research team led by Morgan Frank at the University of Pittsburgh points out that difficulties in exposed professions began in early 2022, before the launch of ChatGPT, and cites factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy shift or an adjustment following pandemic-related hiring peaks. In Denmark, a study involving 25,000 workers, despite a 64% AI adoption rate, does not detect measurable changes in wages or hours, and the average time savings is limited to 2.8%. Other studies do not observe a systematic increase in overall unemployment and highlight the gap between the theoretical potential for automation and the actual use of AI.

The 22–25 Age Group Declines in Exposed Professions

In the United States, a Stanford study from August 2025 based on millions of payroll records observes, since the end of 2022, a relative decline of 13% in employment among 22 to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed professions, and nearly 20% for young software developers. More experienced workers in these fields have maintained their positions or advanced. In March 2026, a study by Anthropic noted a decrease of about 14% in job search rates among 22 to 25-year-olds in these professions. In Australia, data shows a decline in job postings since the end of 2022, particularly in the most exposed groups, where those aged 15 to 24 and recent graduates exhibit lower employment rates and higher unemployment than older workers. In these same groups, youth employment has declined while employment among older workers has increased.

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What the Australian Central Bank is Monitoring and Its Limits

The Australian central bank reports that, so far, AI has had a limited impact on job displacement, but young people starting in heavily affected sectors, such as software development, are the most impacted by these effects. Mike Major has established a tracking system focused on early-career individuals and particularly affected jobs such as programming, administrative tasks, and customer service. He emphasizes that the study assesses potential exposure to AI rather than its actual use by companies, and there is no evidence of a direct cause-and-effect link. Other factors related to the post-pandemic period, such as changes in economic conditions or the widespread adoption of remote work, may also influence the observations. On the other hand, SEEK statistics indicate that AI is reinforcing existing activities while generating additional demand for AI skills.

The Case of Anthropic Illustrates an Internal Shift

At Anthropic, the proportion of junior hires for technical positions has dropped from 27% to 9% since the beginning of 2025. By August 2026, the company's AI agents had already logged six times the number of hours worked by human employees. Anthropic states that it represents an atypical situation due to the central role of AI in its operations. Researchers warn of a potential "tragedy of cognitive commons" if junior positions disappear, which could ultimately lead to a shortage of experienced professionals, provided that these profiles remain necessary.

Training and AI-Related Jobs in High Demand

The Future of Jobs Report 2025 from the World Economic Forum indicates that 77% of surveyed companies are focusing on skill development rather than job cuts. Experts from the World Economic Forum predict a net gain of 78 million jobs created by 2030. LinkedIn reports that job postings related to AI have increased sixfold in one year. These trends reflect the creation of specific needs around AI.