AI PACs: Millions Spent, Limited Gains

Pro-industry and anti-industry committees have injected millions into the U.S. midterms to influence AI regulation. The results are mixed, as the battle between a single federal framework and state powers continues. Leading the Future is already planning expenditures through 2028, with a clear focus on the primaries.

National Framework or State Laws: The Divide Persists and Projects into 2028

The main point of disagreement pits supporters of a single national framework for AI against those who wish for states to retain the ability to impose their own protections. Leading the Future advocates for the establishment of a federal framework and plans to continue its investments in the 2028 elections. Guardrails Alliance, on the other hand, intends to keep opposing candidates backed by the AI industry. Neither side appears ready to change its strategy.

Preferred Primaries: $27.38 Million Committed and Selection Criteria for Races

Leading the Future views the primaries as the most effective use of its resources, believing they help increase candidate visibility and promote AI agendas. The group has invested $27.38 million in these elections, including $8 million to oppose Alex Bores, who lost his congressional bid in June. To decide whether to intervene in a general election, the group claims to evaluate the competitiveness of the race, the potential impact of its spending, and the need to preserve its resources for future elections. Charlie Blaettler, political director of Guardrails Alliance, argues that Leading the Future limits its general election spending to avoid money becoming a contentious issue, citing the Michigan primary where nearly $30 million spent by AIPAC did not prevent Haley Stevens from conceding to Abdul El-Sayed, who subsequently won the Senate seat.

Mixed Results: Notable Defeats Despite High Spending

Despite millions of dollars committed, several candidates backed by AI-related PACs have been defeated. American Mission and Building the Future spent $4.8 million to support Darline Graham for the Senate in South Carolina, without success. American Mission also invested over $500,000 each to support Aaron Flint in Montana and Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina, both of whom lost. Think Big, the Democratic arm of Leading the Future, supported Jared Moskowitz's reelection in Florida, which was successful. On the side of groups advocating for stricter regulation, Public First, backed by Anthropic, saw several of its Republican candidates fail through its affiliated PAC but achieved better results with Democrats, contributing $3 million to a PAC supporting Scott Wiener, who was leading at the time of publication. Guardrails Alliance spent over a million dollars each opposing Jimmy Gomez in California and Aaron Flint in Montana, both of whom were defeated, and $300,000 to support Angela Gonzales-Torres, who won her race against Gomez. It remains complex to isolate the specific impact of AI-related funding from the broader trend observed in favor of Democrats in this election. Additionally, Elon Musk reportedly provided $500 million in financial support to Republicans, many of whom were not elected. According to Leading the Future, some candidates considered favorites and supported by the organization were defeated by Democrats.

Who Says What in the Ads: AI Avoided on One Side, Denounced on the Other

Charlie Blaettler, political director of Guardrails Alliance, notes that Leading the Future's advertisements rarely address AI, preferring to highlight popular themes specific to each candidate. In contrast, those from Guardrails Alliance emphasize funding from the AI industry, aiming to make this money politically toxic. This strategy aligns with Guardrails Alliance's goal of making the acceptance of funds from AI companies a political liability. Meanwhile, American Mission acts as the Republican arm of Leading the Future, a group supported notably by Greg Brockman and Andreessen Horowitz.