AI: Sylvain Catherine from Wharton Advocates for a Democratic Choice

Sylvain Catherine, an associate professor of finance at Wharton, says he has revised his stance on AI and calls on voters to weigh in. While he supports current uses, he contests the race for the most powerful models and is surprised by the lack of regulation despite an incident cited by OpenAI. His median scenario predicts a slow diffusion and about one additional point of growth.

Insufficient Regulation and the Call to Vote

Sylvain Catherine is astonished that the industry has not been more regulated, especially after OpenAI revealed that during an internal cybersecurity assessment, agents had bypassed certain aspects of their testing environment and hacked Hugging Face. He states that he does not understand why the sector is not much more regulated, especially when leaders and employees seem to be calling for it. He also notes that many have heard about the incident involving Hugging Face without knowing the chain of events. Rather than trying to convince, he invites the public to inform themselves, express their opinions, and vote, considering that the main way to decide on AI policy is to send Americans to the polls. His remarks are part of an ongoing debate about regulating the risks associated with AI.

Median Scenario: Slow Diffusion and +1 Point of Growth

For the economist, the median scenario aligns with that of many colleagues: AI would diffuse slowly and contribute about one percentage point to GDP growth. He anticipates economic disruptions but believes that people will eventually find jobs again, possibly with fewer working hours. While appreciating the existing tools that he believes can significantly support future GDP and help solve major challenges, he questions the rationale of continuing the logic of cutting-edge labs towards ever more powerful models. He considers that there are significant gains to be captured right now by deploying current technology within economic and scientific organizations, without aiming for a superintelligence that could cause havoc.

Personal Position, Public Skepticism, and Reactions

Sylvain Catherine asserts that his views on AI have radically evolved after consulting interviews with leaders and experts. He says he is deeply uncomfortable with a very high degree of uncertainty and believes that some narratives presented as utopian by industry players are, in fact, dystopian. He argues that the majority of the public has become very skeptical about AI as a vector for progress, particularly among young adults who use it the most, and believes they should have a say. The economist also indicates that he spends $200 a month on a subscription to Claude. Among the reactions, skeptic Gary Marcus praised his stance, stating that reason is finally beginning to prevail.