Anthropic: $3 Trillion Skepticism Amid Demanding IPO Market

⚡

Key Takeaways

1Only three people raised their hands to buy Anthropic at $3 trillion during SF Tech Week

2Public investors are now demanding financial discipline and solid business models

3The IPO market shows high amounts raised but few transactions, with a climate of waiting before the potential listings of Anthropic and OpenAI

💡Why it matters — Anthropic's IPO is anticipated as a key test to measure the strength of enthusiasm around AI in public markets.

In San Francisco, a poll conducted on the sidelines of a tech event garnered only three hands willing to buy Anthropic at $3 trillion. In a market for initial public offerings (IPOs) rich in amounts but sparse in filings, players are discussing a higher bar and more cautious strategies, while Anthropic aims for a valuation of $2 trillion.

Public Investors: Available Capital but Stricter Criteria

Jack Cassel, Senior Vice President at Nasdaq, believes there is still capital available to support companies going public, but investor requirements have evolved. They now prioritize growth associated with rigorous cash management and discipline, and are scrutinizing business models, product plans, and the post-IPO period more closely. This vigilance could keep consumer and software companies at bay until one or two major labs are listed. Other sectors, such as biotechnology, continue to advance: 22 IPOs have already taken place this year, with more expected. More broadly, the year is marked by significant amounts raised, despite a limited number of transactions.

Wait-and-See and Pricing: The Oura Signal and Cautionary Advice

Oura canceled its IPO at the last minute, citing difficult market conditions. Heidi Mayon, a partner at Simpson Thacher involved in this case, describes a climate of hesitation: according to her, many companies are reluctant to launch before Anthropic and OpenAI are listed. She reports a sentiment that public investment capital remains limited until these IPOs occur, although the example of SpaceX could nuance this perception. She also emphasizes that the rise of AI has driven up valuations in private markets and suggests that some companies would benefit from pricing their IPOs more conservatively to encourage a rise on the first day of trading.

Room Barometer: Few Buyers at $3 Trillion for Anthropic

During a session on a Wednesday evening during SF Tech Week, the question of purchasing Anthropic shares at $3 trillion convinced only three people in the audience. At $1.5 trillion, a few more hands were raised. This result reflects a reluctance to invest at very high valuations, even in a context of strong interest in artificial intelligence.

Anthropic's Goals and Investment Trajectory

Matt Murphy, a partner at Menlo Ventures, had backed Anthropic when the company was valued at $4.1 billion. The company is now aiming for an IPO around $2 trillion. A listing before the end of the year could further increase the total amounts raised, already inflated by the SpaceX operation. Anthropic's IPO is presented as a major test to measure the financial strength of the enthusiasm surrounding AI in public markets.

The Setting of Tech Week and the Poll Scene

In San Francisco, Tech Week was marked by aerial banners promoting startups and inflatable mascots near transport stations. In front of Anthropic's Claude Founder House, hundreds of people were queuing. It was in the Dogpatch neighborhood, during the Tech Insider: Growth Mode event sponsored by Fidelity, that a chief correspondent polled the audience a few minutes after a discussion with investor Matt Murphy.