Anthropic Releases Three AI Scenarios for the US Economy 2030

The AI company proposes a forward-looking framework for the American economy through 2030, featuring three scenarios ranging from an impact comparable to the Internet to an extreme acceleration of production. The trajectories outline specific effects on the composition of the workforce, wages, and the share of labor, while Dario Amodei had warned in 2025 about significant losses in entry-level office jobs.

Workforce Composition and Employment According to the Model

In the modest scenario, the share of knowledge workers in the American workforce would decrease from 62.2% to 59.7% between 2026 and 2030, while the share of other professions would increase from 37.8% to 39.6%. The extreme scenario predicts an unemployment rate of 17.9% for knowledge workers and a decline in the labor share of GDP from 60% to 45%. In the intermediate scenario, stagnation of wages for knowledge workers would be accompanied by transitions from jobs like programmer or call center agent to roles such as electrician or nurse. Anthropic estimates that these transitions would be challenging and lead to an increase in unemployment.

Growth and Productivity: Three Distinct Paces

The modest scenario anticipates a slight increase in GDP with stable wages, resulting in an effect comparable to that of the Internet. The intermediate scenario expects a doubling of economic growth, without any wage progression for knowledge workers. In the extreme scenario, production would double every 4.5 years.

Dario Amodei's Public Warnings in 2025

In May 2025, Dario Amodei indicated that there could be up to a 50% loss in entry-level office jobs by 2030. He also mentioned an unemployment rate that could reach 10 to 20%. These statements align with the projections of the extreme scenario from the model published by Anthropic, which presents several trajectories for the American economy by 2030.