AI and the Iranian Conflict: When War Becomes Spectacle

The Impact of AI on Conflict Perception

A recent post on the social network X highlighted an innovative dashboard that tracks in real-time American and Israeli military strikes against Iran. This dashboard was developed by two individuals from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. It integrates open-source data such as satellite images and ship tracking. In addition, it offers a chat function, news feeds, and links to prediction markets, where users can bet on future events, such as the appointment of Iran's next "supreme leader." Recently, the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei allowed some bettors to make gains.

The Rapid Emergence of AI Dashboards

Over the past week, I analyzed more than a dozen similar dashboards. Many of these tools were "coded in ambient mode" in just a few days, thanks to AI tools. Some even caught the attention of influential figures in the tech industry, such as a founder of Palantir. This platform is used by the U.S. military to access AI models like Claude during conflicts. While some of these dashboards were created before the escalation of tensions in Iran, most are now promoted by their creators as alternatives to traditional media, which are deemed slow and ineffective. A LinkedIn user commented that he learned more in 30 seconds by consulting a map of Iranian airspace than by following major media outlets.

AI as a Mediator of Information in Times of War

The attention given to AI in the context of the Iranian conflict has primarily focused on its potential role in aiding military decision-making. However, these dashboards and the ecosystem surrounding them reveal a new role for AI: the mediation of information, often with negative consequences. Several factors combine to create this situation. AI-assisted coding tools allow anyone to compile open-source intelligence without advanced technical skills, while chatbots provide quick, but sometimes dubious, analyses. The proliferation of false content drives observers to seek raw and accurate analyses, typically reserved for intelligence agencies. Moreover, the use of Claude by the U.S. military in this conflict, despite risks to the supply chain, has reinforced the idea that AI is a professional intelligence tool. The demand for these dashboards is also fueled by real-time prediction markets that promise financial rewards to those who are well-informed. These trends have given rise to a new type of war spectacle, powered by AI, which can distort information as much as it clarifies it.

The Limits of Raw Data Streams

As a journalist, I recognize the potential of these intelligence tools. While we know that real-time data on shipping routes or power outages exists, seeing it compiled in one place is powerful. However, using this data to track a war while betting on it transforms the conflict into unhealthy entertainment. There are real concerns about the informational value of these raw data streams. Craig Silverman, a specialist in digital investigations, has cataloged about twenty of these dashboards. According to him, the danger lies in the illusion of being informed and in control of the situation, while in reality, these tools merely compile signals without providing true insights.

The Question of Information Quality

A major issue concerns the quality of the information provided. Many dashboards present "intelligence feeds" with AI-generated summaries of complex and evolving events, which can introduce inaccuracies. The data is not particularly filtered, displaying disparate information simultaneously, such as maps of strikes in Iran alongside obscure cryptocurrency prices. Unlike these tools, intelligence agencies pair data streams with experts capable of providing context and historical expertise, while having access to exclusive information not available on the public web.

The Illusion of Information Democratization

The creators of these information pipelines on the Iranian conflict promise that AI can democratize access to information previously reserved for elites. According to them, AI makes this data accessible to everyone, allowing anyone to use it as they wish, whether to inform themselves or to bet on military events. However, an abundance of information, even well-assembled by AI, does not guarantee the accuracy or context necessary for true understanding. Intelligence agencies perform this work internally, and good journalism strives to do it for the public.

The Link to Betting Markets

It is important to highlight the close link between these dashboards and betting markets. The dashboard created by the duo from Andreessen Horowitz includes a list of ongoing bets, demonstrating how information about the conflict is integrated into a betting system, thereby transforming war into a lucrative spectacle.