Google's UCP and Gemini: Affiliation Maintains Its Role

Payment within Google's AI mode and the Gemini app can bypass affiliate clicks. However, solutions exist, ranging from first-click locking to alternative tracking via IP or codes, as well as decisions on which programs to prioritize.

Locked Credit and Reconciliation: What Still Protects Sales

Well-configured affiliate programs can recover the first click and attribute the sale to the right affiliate. Third-party tools like ThoughtMetrics allow visualization of the various touchpoints in the customer journey and repeat purchases. If the affiliate link is not used, the publisher cannot claim the commission. In some cases, a manual reconciliation at the end of the month can add untracked sales, but the absence of an initial click reduces potential revenue. Therefore, clicks on links remain essential for obtaining sales credit, even though advanced tracking techniques offer additional protections.

When the Transaction Escapes the Link: UCP, Gemini, Platforms, and Marketplaces

Google's Universal Commerce Protocol allows retailers to offer payment directly within the AI mode of search and in the Gemini app, enabling a U.S. buyer to make a purchase without going through the merchant's site. Affiliate marketing historically relied on clicks and cookie deposits, but this model is increasingly being circumvented. Closed platforms like TikTok Shop or retailer apps integrated into ChatGPT, such as Walmart's, keep the transaction on their own interface, which can prevent the use of the affiliate link. A reader can thus view affiliate content and then purchase on TikTok, without credit being attributed to the affiliate. Additionally, some marketplaces hosted by major brands allow third-party sellers to make sales without paying affiliate commissions.

Tracking Techniques Beyond the Cookie

Cookie and link tracking has lost effectiveness with the rise of mobile browsing, where searches on phones were followed by purchases on computers, and responsive sites were less common. The industry then developed cross-device and server-to-server tracking. An SEO expert reports having implemented an automatic login prompt when an affiliate parameter was detected, in order to synchronize the sale with the initial click after authentication. Affiliate networks have introduced advanced techniques like fingerprinting. Other methods compare IP addresses and consumer data to link connected TV ad exposure to a sale, with companies like TV Scientific or AudioHook using alternative approaches. IP hashing and the use of vanity codes complement these systems, with a recommendation: avoid having these codes disseminated on coupon sites, browser extensions, or exposed by AIs to non-referred traffic.

Threats to Attribution and Affiliate-side Decisions

Several factors can compromise attribution: browser extensions that erase cookies, others that overwrite an existing affiliate click, and some merchants allowing coupon sites to take credit at the end of the journey. On platforms like TikTok, it is possible to publish content and use links on one's site to monetize through synchronized sellers. The SEO expert recommends avoiding programs that do not compensate for third-party sales. The fear of seeing an order captured by Google without crediting the affiliate is acknowledged, but it is not advisable to abandon one's channels: the analogy with Shopify and Google Direct Checkout encourages diversifying revenue sources and working with brands that do not limit themselves to affiliate links, while continuing to use them.