IMF: 40% of Jobs Exposed to AI, Gradual Impact Expected

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Key Takeaways

1The IMF estimates that 40% of global jobs could be affected by AI, with nearly 60% in advanced economies and 26% in low-income countries.

2Kristalina Georgieva refers to a "slow-moving tsunami" and targets recent graduates as the most affected.

3The capabilities of AI models and agents are advancing rapidly, with breakthroughs at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral.

4Economic scenarios up to 2030 predict highly variable impacts on employment, ranging from limited displacement to increased unemployment.

💡Why it matters — The scale and speed of AI's impact on employment will depend on technological developments and economic choices, with major consequences for the labor market.

The IMF estimates that 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected by artificial intelligence, with particularly pronounced effects in advanced economies. As more autonomous agents and more powerful models emerge, contrasting economic projections outline very variable consequences for employment. From Kristalina Georgieva to Anthropic, signals converge on a shock described as "slow" but potentially massive.

Diverging Employment Trajectories According to Anthropic's Scenarios

Anthropic has developed several projections for the U.S. economy and employment by 2030, depending on the evolution of artificial intelligence performance. In a scenario where AI's contribution to GDP growth remains modest, the company anticipates very little job displacement. Conversely, its so-called extreme scenario envisions the economy doubling in size every 4.5 years, with an employment impact described as maximal. In this hypothesis, society would become much wealthier, but far fewer workers would hold knowledge jobs, and unemployment would exceed levels typically observed during recessions. Arthur Mensch believes that jobs will change profoundly in the next five years. The IMF specifies that for the affected positions, AI could lead to forms of augmentation, downgrading, or elimination.

A Shock Described as a "Tsunami" by the IMF, but with "Slow Displacement"

Kristalina Georgieva characterizes the impact of artificial intelligence as a "tsunami," while emphasizing its relative slowness. According to her, recent graduates would be the first affected, as they traditionally enter through routine and repetitive functions before progressing. The International Monetary Fund estimates that 40% of jobs worldwide will be affected, with nearly 60% in advanced economies and about 26% in low-income countries. At this stage, the bloodbath predicted by some has not occurred, and the effect on hiring appears more gradual. This reading aligns with Anthropic's view, which likens the dynamics of AI to the introduction of the internet or trade with China rather than an abrupt shock.

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Rising Capabilities: Nearly Autonomous Agents and Experimental Breakthroughs

Since 2022, technology has seen marked advancements, and each new generation of models exhibits enhanced performance. Agents are already capable of executing complex tasks, including scientific work, in a nearly autonomous manner. OpenAI reports that tests of a novel model have solved hundreds of open mathematical problems. For its part, Anthropic indicates that it has identified, through the analysis of a large corpus of data, a technology capable of performing functions similar to those of CRISPR.

Mistral Details Its Ambitions and Operational Capabilities

Mistral has launched a cutting-edge model whose performance is presented as comparable to that of the best Chinese AIs. Arthur Mensch claims that Mistral Large 4 can perform tasks for several hours when a goal is assigned to it. The company also plans a more powerful model, announced as capable of achieving results similar to those of OpenAI in mathematics.