Japan: 10 Million AI Robots by 2040

An Ambitious Project to Address Labor Shortages

Japan has recently formalized an ambitious plan to deploy 10 million AI-powered robots across 18 sectors by 2040. This initiative, no longer just a theoretical idea, has been confirmed by the Japanese government. To support this colossal project, public funding of up to one trillion yen, approximately $6.1 billion, is planned over a five-year period.

This impressive figure is often reported without thorough verification, but it is not merely a political promise. The government has already given the green light for the realization of this project, and a relatively unknown company outside Japan has been tasked with its implementation.

Key Players in Technological Development

The Japanese Ministry of Industry, in collaboration with the innovation agency NEDO, has entrusted Noetra and the national research laboratory AIST with the mission of developing a physical AI model. This project will span from 2026 to 2030 and aims to create a multimodal foundation model. This model will be capable of simultaneously processing language, images, videos, and sensor data, enabling robots to understand their environment and act autonomously, beyond simple pre-programmed movements.

A preliminary version of this model is expected to be available as early as this fiscal year, with annual updates based on data provided by manufacturers and other involved companies. The initial funding, valued at approximately $2.3 billion, comes from an allocation of 387.3 billion yen, financed by GX economic transition bonds.

However, only the first two years of funding are guaranteed. Subsequently, funding will be reassessed each year through a "stage-gate" process, meaning the Japanese government can withdraw if objectives are not met. Thus, the one trillion yen figure represents a potential ceiling, not a certainty.

A Consortium of Japanese Companies

The project is supported by Noetra, a company predominantly owned by giants such as SoftBank, NEC, Sony Group, and Honda. Fujitsu and Rakuten are also considering joining this initiative. Engineers from SoftBank are collaborating with researchers from Preferred Networks and AIST to bring this project to fruition.

This collaborative approach is typical of Japanese industrial initiatives, where the state brings together a consortium of companies already involved in producing the necessary hardware, from Honda's robots to Sony's imaging sensors.

The Reasons Behind the Urgency of the Project

Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa explained that this plan aims to "vigorously promote social implementation" across various sectors, such as food service, food manufacturing, and medical care. This initiative addresses an urgent need for labor due to Japan's aging population and strict immigration policies, which have left many economic sectors short of workers.

Japan is not new to robotics. The country has accumulated valuable expertise in areas such as elderly care, disaster response, manufacturing, and even cleaning the Fukushima Daiichi site. This project aims to transform this expertise into an exportable product, beyond a mere national solution.

The timing of this announcement is not coincidental. South Korea has recently unveiled its own robotics initiative, and both countries see physical AI as the next battleground in a technological competition that has so far focused on chatbots and cloud contracts.

Upcoming Steps to Watch

The real challenge for this project lies not in the 2040 goal but in the first review of the "stage-gate" process. If Noetra succeeds in meeting its initial objectives and publishes a usable model this fiscal year, it is likely that the list of investors will expand beyond the current four companies. Conversely, if not, the funding framework would allow Tokyo to discreetly withdraw, thus avoiding support for a national project that fails to deliver on its promises.