Kathryn Anne Edwards vs. the AI Job Apocalypse

In the early episodes of the Platformer mini-series dedicated to the impact of AI on employment, figures from the tech industry shared their views. Aaron Levie, CEO of Box, stated that the "last mile" of human work will resist automation. James Manyika from Google explained that automating a task is much simpler than automating an entire job. Boris Cherny, creator of Claude Code, predicted the end of software engineering as we know it but envisioned the emergence of a new profession of "builder," creating more jobs than it would destroy.

As the series approaches its second half, the focus shifts to perspectives outside the tech sector, particularly those of economists. Kathryn Anne Edwards, a labor economist and policy consultant, was invited to share her analysis. Edwards, who writes for Bloomberg Opinion and co-hosts the podcast Optimist Economy, criticizes the alarmist view that AI will lead to a "leisure class" of permanent unemployment. She considers this idea to be classist, underestimating the ingenuity and resilience of American workers.

Edwards expresses her belief in the ability of American workers to adapt and not be sidelined by their employers. She states: "I firmly believe that the American worker is an incredible being, and they do not deserve to be sidelined by their former employer as if they could never work again." She refuses to allow discussions about workers in this manner in her presence.

However, Edwards emphasizes that the United States is ill-prepared for potential mass unemployment. She believes this should prompt planning for scenarios related to job losses due to AI. She reminds us that many people are already unemployed and that we choose not to help them. According to her, reforms to unemployment and health insurance systems, as well as government subsidies, would be effective. She also mentions increasing the estate tax as a potential measure. The implementation of these solutions will depend on political will.

Despite her concerns, Edwards describes herself as an optimist, albeit a cynical one. She explains: "The lowest bar is the greatest source of optimism because I would feel very differently if we had tried anything."

Edwards highlights a practical optimism based on solid economic evidence. She asserts that AI could transform jobs without necessarily leading to a net loss. She criticizes the tendency to view certain workers as more valuable than others, which devalues the contributions of many employees.

She acknowledges that AI is already causing job losses but also job creation. Economists, in her view, need to focus on the implications of these changes rather than seeking precise numbers. Edwards warns against attributing layoffs to a single cause, such as AI, as other factors, like hiring choices during the pandemic, may also play a role.

In conclusion, Edwards insists that the conversation about AI and jobs must go beyond statistics and focus on the support systems needed for those who may be affected by these changes.