AI and Employment in the United States: An Imminent Crisis

Decline in Non-Farm Jobs: An Alarming Signal

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported a significant decline in non-farm jobs in the United States, with a loss of 92,000 positions in February. This figure is well below expectations, which anticipated a decrease of around 50,000 jobs. This negative trend occurs in a context where the American economy has already lost jobs three times in the past five months. Outside of the healthcare sector, job growth is nearly non-existent, contributing to an "employment-less" growth economy, illustrated by a K-shaped model.

The Impact of AI on the Tech Sector

U.S. immigration restrictions, combined with technology initiatives focused on AI, foreshadow further layoffs in the tech sector. Oracle, for example, is considering reducing its workforce by at least 30,000 jobs. This decision is driven by the debt incurred to support OpenAI's computing infrastructure, although the expansion of OpenAI's Stargate facility is not planned in the immediate future.

A Low-Hiring Economy: LinkedIn's Assessment

According to Karin Kimbrough, Chief Economist at LinkedIn, hiring has dropped by 20% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Unemployed individuals remain jobless for an average of seven months, reflecting a tight and sluggish labor market.

The Potential Impact of AI on the Labor Market

Economists at Anthropic, Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory, have developed a new method to assess how AI could transform the labor market. They suggest that knowledge workers, particularly vulnerable ones, may be the most affected by technologies developed by Anthropic. However, it is important to note that their conclusions are based on outdated data and considerable assumptions.

Current Limitations of Generative AI

Despite technological advancements, generative AI has yet to effectively automate tasks in most areas of intellectual work, except for programming and certain aspects of administration and finance. The technology has not yet demonstrated its ability to create significant jobs or increase productivity beyond a few specific roles, even within tech companies.

Restructuring in Tech Companies

While mass layoffs have not yet been observed, some tech companies have begun to reorganize their workforces. There is a noted decrease in the number of managers, an increase in hybrid roles, and a rise in product managers and designers involved in collaborative projects.

A Challenging Economic Environment

Hiring has significantly slowed in January 2026, with a decrease of 3.3% compared to December and a drop of 5.7% compared to January 2025. Even in 2025, hiring was weak. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts an average annual economic growth of 1.8% from 2024 to 2034. However, the GDP benefits from investments in data centers and computing infrastructure are not evenly distributed across the economy.

Persistent Challenges in the Labor Market

The low-hiring environment poses additional problems. In 2025 and 2026, monthly job creation in the United States is nearly non-existent, except for the healthcare sector, which remains the primary driver of employment. Risks associated with AI, such as cognitive displacement, talent loss, and disengagement among youth, are now moderate to high in this context.

A broader measure of unemployment, including discouraged workers and those in part-time positions for economic reasons, has slightly decreased to 7.9%, which is 0.2 percentage points below January's level. The official unemployment rate of 4.4% masks the reality of a challenging job market for job seekers. Young people, in particular, may feel nihilistic or discouraged in light of current trends, as generative AI threatens opportunities in the white-collar sector.