Measuring Uncertainty to Ensure Reliable Automated Decisions
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Automating a decision is not justified solely by the existence of a prediction. It is recommended to quantify uncertainty and to delay automation if the risk of error is high.
Delay Automation When an Error Can Be Costly
A decision system should delay automation when an error could incur significant costs. The mere ability to produce a prediction is not enough to justify an automated decision: it is essential to distinguish between generating a prediction and the act of deciding automatically.
Measure Uncertainty Before Any Automated Decision
Before any automation, it is necessary to assess the uncertainty associated with the prediction. Bayesian safeguards are proposed to incorporate this measure of uncertainty into the decision-making process.
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