Sam Altman: AI Adoption Slower Than Expected
The head of OpenAI admits to having overestimated the speed of AI's economic effects. Despite recent stock market bets and strong promises in Silicon Valley, he describes an adoption hindered by habits, even citing his own usage.
In the markets, bets are placed, but adoption remains laborious
In the first quarter of 2026, several Software as a Service (SaaS) stocks experienced significant declines, with investors betting that companies like Salesforce, Atlassian, and Asana would face competition from AI tools capable of creating custom operating systems. This phenomenon has been dubbed the "SaaSpocalypse." However, Sam Altman believes that transforming AI's potential into widespread adoption by businesses is more complex than anticipated. He compares this situation to the early 2000s when customers continued to rent movies from Blockbuster while Netflix was already offering DVD delivery to homes. According to him, the power of habit and the difficulty of changing behavior are more significant than what tech enthusiasts think.
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Altman admits to overly rapid forecasts for the economy
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, acknowledges that he was too ambitious regarding the timelines for AI adoption and admits that his initial forecasts about rapid economic impacts were overly optimistic. He notes that customers and businesses remain attached to their suppliers and habits. He believes many have overestimated the speed of change, while users wish to continue using their tools in the same way. He considers that this slower pace of adoption also has positive aspects.
Ambitious promises face the inertia of usage
For several years, AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic have highlighted the potential of the technology to improve business efficiency, enable the creation of new companies with fewer employees, and transform the economy. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, stated that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level office jobs within five years. Sam Altman thought that the release of GPT-4 in 2023 would quickly lead to upheavals for many software companies, but he observes resistance, including in his own practices: he continues to manually manage his inbox, even though Codex could automate part of this task.
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