Elon Musk and Peter Diamandis: AI for an Ambitious Universal Income

Elon Musk, the renowned entrepreneur behind Tesla and SpaceX, recently shared a bold vision for the future, where artificial intelligence (AI) would play a central role in economic and social transformation. According to Musk, this technological revolution would enable governments to provide a high universal income to their citizens, rendering retirement savings obsolete. This idea was discussed in depth by Peter Diamandis, a long-time friend of Musk and a technology guru, during an interview with Business Insider.

Musk stated that individuals should not worry about saving money for retirement in the coming decades, as he believes savings will become irrelevant. Peter Diamandis, known for founding the XPRIZE Foundation and authoring the book "Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think," expressed some reservations about this advice. During a video call, he explained that Musk's argument is based on the idea that technological advancements will generate such wealth that governments will be able to offer a "high universal income" (UHI) to every American, thus eliminating the need for capital for old age.

Diamandis described a world where every man, woman, and child could have access to all the food, water, energy, healthcare, and education they need and desire. This vision aligns with Musk's recent assertion on the X platform that the federal government should distribute checks to everyone to address job losses due to AI. Diamandis shares this view, anticipating that AI will lead to unemployment, and that "the only thing I can imagine the government will do is write COVID-style checks to help stabilize people."

He clarified that Musk envisions advancements in AI, robotics, and energy increasing corporate profits and GDP, which will help cover the cost of the checks and "bring down the price of everything," making money more effective. Diamandis imagined that the government could provide $3,000 per month in universal basic income (UBI) to help people meet their basic needs. Once goods and services become massively cheaper, "that money will go much further."

Diamandis emphasized that many technologies have seen their costs decline over time, including bandwidth, digital communication, and access to intelligence. Referring to Musk's comment on his podcast that people could have "everything they want" in an abundant future, Diamandis stated that there is a "point where AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing produce so much that you couldn't desire enough to saturate that manufacturing capacity."

The space enthusiast, who recently launched the Vision XPRIZE to encourage filmmakers to depict more optimistic visions of the future, acknowledged that this vision conflicts with current reality. He stated that "people today are facing many real challenges, whether it's the cost of electricity, food prices, or lack of jobs," so a comment like Musk's "rings hollow if that's the situation you're in."

Nevertheless, Diamandis asserted that he adheres to Musk's vision. "I often say that Elon has never been wrong," he said. "He's just not always right about the timelines."

Diamandis struggled with Musk's prediction that work will become optional in an abundant future. He suggested there could be a "divide" between consumers, who "live a Netflix lifestyle" where "a robot brings you your beer and popcorn and you live off UBI checks," and creators who leverage new technologies to realize their "dreams."

He pointed out that many people work not out of passion, but to support their families or have health insurance, and would finally be free to leave those jobs. "There was never a way to get off that treadmill of work and survival," he said. Now, someone can use AI to start a business for "pennies on the dollar" compared to 20 or 30 years ago.

Governments should think carefully before distributing such high amounts to everyone that they might choose not to work, warned Ekaterina Abramova, a professor at the London Business School and an expert in machine learning. She cautioned that "prolonged detachment from significant economic activity risks skill atrophy and reduces long-term productivity," so a universal income must be "accompanied by strong incentives to engage in learning, entrepreneurship, or socially useful work, rather than passive consumption."